I’ve just found out that there’s a video stream of a keynote speech I did last year on the future of investment at the Brillient PortfolioConstruction conference. At the time I wrote about one of the key frames I used for the presentation, focusing on population growth and economic growth in the period from 1600 to 2050. We are at a key inflection point in human history, when population growth is slowing after an extraordinary acceleration in the second half of the 20th century. The vital question now is whether economic growth can be maintained as population growth slows.
Another interesting perspective I highlighed in my talk was how recent price stability is an aggregate phenomenon. There is in fact strong deflation in many sectors, such as clothing and durable goods. A massive drive to commoditisation and extreme price pressures in many sectors of the economy is being facilated by global sourcing, automation, and supply chain efficiency. At the same time there is strong inflation in sectors where supply is driven by local labor, or reflects aspirational consumption. Where people are spending discretionary income to improve their quality of life, prices will continue to rise.
Some of the other issues I touch on in the keynote are:
• Drivers of commoditization
• Pervasive connectivity
• Media everywhere
• The modular economy
• The quest to spend
• Greater consumer expectations
• Augmented humanity
I then cover some of the specific implications for portfolio managers. I’ve been interviewed before on the issue of why we will need new investment vehicles as economy activity becomes more modular and shifts away from listed companies. Another significant issue is that as industry boundaries blur, portfolio managers are finding it harder to identify discrete investments that represent industry sectors or underlying trends. Click here to watch the video of the complete keynote.
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