June 2009 Archives

I send out an extremely irregular email to keep people posted on what's up in my world and the most prominent content I'm creating. I thought I might as well post it on my blog as well...

What's happening in the living networks
June 2009

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This is a quite extraordinary year for me. It's now been 15 months since I've sent out a 'newsletter', so this email is a bit of an update on what's going on in my world, which makes it quite a long email.... The most important of all this is the birth of my daughter Phoebe on 7 June, packed into a time of great change and development in my work, writing and businesses.

I believe that 2009 is the turning of an epoch. Linear shifts are giving way to exponential change as we call into question existing structures. The key theme for me is divergence: there is a rapidly growing gap between those thriving and those struggling. These are very, very exciting times.

In this update I provide links to some of the more interesting content we have generated over the last period. The best way to keep up with what I'm doing and finding interesting are my Trends in the Living Networks blog or my Twitter updates.

In this update:

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- I morph into futurist and entrepreneur
- Launch of leading events firm The Insight Exchange
- Implementing Enterprise 2.0: New book and consulting work
- Recent keynotes in Abu Dhabi, San Francisco, Sydney, Perth etc.: videos and presentations
- Future of Influence Summit coming soon!
- Relaunch of Advanced Human Technologies
- Media coverage: New York Times, The Guardian, ABC, SBS, SkyNews etc.
- Most popular blog posts: influence framework, future of finance, Twitter and media, organizational change etc.
- Phoebe Dawson is born

[NOTE:] You have to be viewing the full article for the internal links above to work

Graham Dawson of OzWeather fame has launched his latest iPhone app Climate Eye, which promises to be another big winner. It enables users to look up any city on the planet and find out official current weather and forecasts, including how much colder or hotter it is compared to expectations for that time of the year.

It also shows average weather for any month or day of the year in each location, including temperatures and rainfall, even the likelihood of rainfall on any particular day.

Among other uses, the app is great for travellers who want to know what the weather is likely to be when they arrive in their destinations, or even for choosing where they want to go at a particular time of year.

The innovative interface design (which I am told is referred to as “steampunk”) reminds me of the world in The Golden Compass – antique brass instrument style to access digital data – very cool.

Forthcoming apps from Graham will provide additional insights on climate and climate change.

See screenshots of the app on Graham's blog

FULL DISCLOSURE
Graham is my brother :-)

That’s influence for you. After The Insight Exchange’s event Twitter’s Impact on Media & Journalism last week, the biggest front page article in The Australian’s media section today, titled Journos mastering the Twitterverse, opening with:

IT'S Tuesday and I'm at a forum on the topic "Twitter's Impact on Media and Journalism", busily taking down the speeches in shorthand. As I do, the business-suited woman sitting on my left is tweeting about me on her laptop.

"This is interesting," she types. "I'm at #timj talk about Twitter and media/journalism. I'm tweeting and the journalist next to me has paper/pen :-)"

Paper and pen? Got me! I do use them. However, I also use Twitter, which is how I caught up with her comment once I was back in the office.

It’s a long article, accompanied by three other articles on Twitter in media. The thrust of the article is about how journalists are using Twitter. It mentions Dave Earley’s list of Australian journalists and news media people with Twitter accounts, and Anthony Dever’s list of Australian media organizations on Twitter.

Presumably from these lists they have compiled a list of prominent Australian journalists on Twitter:

Increasingly, we primarily find content through aggregated influence. In other words, influencers use Twitter, blog, Delicious, Digg, Reddit etc. to highlight the content they find most interesting. Collectively these influencers make this content highly visible, driving at times massive traffic to articles.

A couple of years ago I wrote about Uncovering the structure of influence and social opinion, which drew on research on how just a handful of influencers drive the content aggregation sites such as Digg, and a little later analyzed how influencers and amplifiers had helped one of my blog posts hit the front page Delicious.

These topics will be covered in detail at Future of Influence Summit 2009 - details coming soon.

In January the grand-daddy of the tech news aggregators, Techmeme, started accepting suggestions for stories, by people sending links on Twitter along with "tip @techmeme". The most prominent Techmeme story suggestor has been @atul.

Atul is interviewed in Success Secrets of a Top Techmeme Tipper. The entire interview is worth reading; I have picked out some of his comments on his motivations.

New Scientist has published an interesting article titled Email patterns can predict impending doom, which reviews findings by researchers at Florida Institute of Technology. They, as many researchers, used the email logs from Enron, which have been made available for analysis by federal investigators.

The key finding from the research was that the number of active email cliques, in which groups exchanged emails between each other but not outside, went from 100 to 800 a month before the collapse of the company. This appeared to reflect decreasing trust across the broader organization and increasing stress. This indicates that very strong indicators of organizational health can be gleaned from network analysis.

Network analysis by Advanced Human Technologies of top executives in global corporation

Today I was at Twitter's Impact on Media & Journalism run by The Insight Exchange. It was as usual a fantastic event with great insights – I will be digesting and musing on the conversations and ideas for a while, and will incorporate these into future frameworks.

Below are quick on-the-fly notes from the event. Check out the Twitter stream #timj for the rich conversations from the event. For my own thoughts on the topic read my post from last week on How Twitter impact media and journalism: Five Fundamental Factors.

Here are my notes from each of the presenters – taken on the fly but hopefully a reasonable representation of what they said. Some of the presentations will be put on online in audio and hopefully transcription so will post links when they’re available.

Mark Pesce (@mpesce)
He begins by quoting Bob Woodward:
"Social media? It's noise. Twitter? Facebook? It's all a diversion. Good reporting is always going to be about hard work; about waking up every morning with the thought: What are the bastards hiding today?"

Over the last years I have spent significant time assisting professional services firms to drive innovation. This year I am finding that the economic climate is intensifying the focus on these issues rather than pushing them to the background.

The pressures that commoditize services are intensifying, local and global competition is increasing, and clients are seeking value in different forms than they have in the past. Another critical driver is the war for talent. Young, talented professionals show little interest in continuing to plough the furrow of long-established processes, however wax enthusiastic about creating new approaches to their work.

However there are many barriers to innovation in large professional firms, including billing imperatives, strong functional specialization, and often highly risk-averse cultures. Much of the management literature on innovation focuses on product development and design, and is not always relevant to a professional services environment.

I’ve written before about innovation in professional services, including the White Paper I wrote for SAP on Service Delivery Innovation and in Chapter 9 of Living Networks.

Here are some reflections on where I see the greatest potential for value-creation in the space.

DOMAINS FOR INNOVATION

There are several key domains for innovation for professional firms:

Services and products. In a rapidly changing business environment, providing the services that are most relevant to clients’ needs can provide real competitive advantage. The issue is not just in quickly generating new offerings, but also in packaging these so they can be readily communicated to clients by front-line professionals.

Gerontocracy n. Rule by the elderly

When we think about the future, there are some things we can predict better than others. One of the things we have the best idea of is demographics and age distributions. There remain uncertainties such as improvements in health care and gerontology, the rise of unforeseen diseases and pandemics, and devastating war, but by and large we can be fairly confident of our demographic forecasts.

In recent keynotes I've done on technology in aged care and the future of the global health economy I examined the implications of future demographic profiles. The forecast profiles for 2050 for some of the world's largest economies are shown below. Source for all of the profiles is NationMaster, an excellent repository of country information. Of all of these countries, USA is the country which will have the least imbalance to the elderly, accompanied by a dramatic shift in ethnicity of the young.

One of the many implications of these age profiles is the inevitability of gerontocracy - rule by the elderly. Given the age profiles below, it is starkly clear what segment of the population any warm-blooded vote-seeking politician will seek to woo. In other words, given a democratic future, we can expect government policies to be unmitigatedly pro-aged, with barely a look in for the young.

Fortunately I'll be old by then.

We finally have video of my presentation on Future of the Enterprise at the TEDx event in San Francisco on May 5. The video is a nice production, very kindly done by Denis Mars to pull in the slides and Flash that supported my presentation.

Read more about the TEDxAdvance event, organized by Advance San Francisco. The best description is Andrew Mager's excellent review of the evening.

The TEDx presentation format is strictly 20 minutes, so my presentation fits into two 9 minute YouTube videos below. Feel free to start at Part 2 if you want a sampler of the content - the story pretty much hangs together from there too.

In the presentation I discuss:
* Origins of organizations, from pre-agricultural through pyramid building, the guild, and modern companies
* Enterprise vs. Corporation. The critical distinction that means the "enterprise" will be more important than the "corporation" moving forward
* My personal work journey, through distributed computing, financial markets, Japan, information broking and NLP formed my thinking on organizations
* Knowledge and relationships are the only resources that matter in today's economy
* Living networks of people, organizations and industry emerge
* Organizations are media entities - the flow of information defines its functioning
* Three driving forces today: Connectivity, Expectations and Commoditization
* Enterprise 2.0 is about creating the next phase of organizations - it is done by creating parameters for experimentation
* In the Heuristic Age structured trial and error is the only viable path to responsiveness
* Five questions: I end with five key questions we must answer to create the future of the enterprise:

What structures will emerge for allocating capital to enterprise?

What models will best turn participation into value creation?

How do we best tap the global talent economy in a virtual world?

What role will reputation play?

How will we make work meaningful?

A new mobile app called Layar has been launched recently. It will initially only be available for Android, with the intent of getting it onto the iPhone 3G S as a priority. At this point it only functions in the Netherlands, but will be available in Germany, UK and US this year. The video below shows how it could work, giving an example of identifying vacant real estate simply by scanning around.

One of the phone features required for this app to run is the magnetometer (compass). This has been available on many Nokia and some other handsets for a while, and makes its iPhone debut with the 3G S. Magnetometers are actually very inexpensive, but allow a wealth of new mobile applications that depend on knowing which way the camera is oriented.

There is no question that augmented reality will be a key feature of our technological future, and clearly this will be primarily relevant when we are mobile. Annotation of our environment, including detailed information about its features, and particularly user-generated content, will be extremely useful as well as fun. The pervasive nature of the iPhone means this is the platform which is likely to popularize mobile augmented reality. Layar is a player and no doubt there will be more.

Additional commentary from TUAW, IntoMobile, ReadWriteWeb, AndroidGuys, and MacRumors.

One of the most interesting issues regarding Twitter is its impact on the media and journalism. The Insight Exchange is running a lunch event Twitter’s Impact on Media & Journalism in Sydney on 23 June which promises to be extremely interesting, with insights from among others Mark Pesce, Renai Lemay, Paul Colgan and Corrie McLeod (click on the names to see pre-event interviews of the speakers by Beth Etling) as well as in-depth discussion by all participants.

Below are some of my thoughts on the topic. As an introduction, in the ABC TV segment below Mark Scott, Managing Director of ABC and myself are interviewed about the role of Twitter in media. Mark emphasizes that people want a trusted source for their news, whereas I point to the value of Twitter in breaking news. At the time I wrote more about these different viewpoints on Twitter and media, noting that Scott's stance "just takes us back to the traditional view that news is only news once a journalist has reported it."

I see Five Fundamental Factors on how Twitter impacts media and journalism:

1. Twitter’s role in breaking news

I just got sent this nice picture of Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman and myself at the residence of His Highness Sheikh Nahyan Bin Mubarak Al Nahyan, UAE Minister for Higher Education and Scientific Research. We were invited to his home in the evening for an informal conversation after the MegaTrends conference we both keynoted at in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks ago.

HH Sheikh Nahyan Bin Mubarak Al Nahyan is looking at a copy of my book Living Networks.

[UPDATE:] Here is the updated Twitter nation data from January 2010

Sysomos has just released extensive research on Twitter use, filled with all sorts of fascinating information, such as 72% of Twitter users have joined since the beginning of this year, 53% of Twitterers are women, and marketers are 50 times more likely than normal people to follow over 2000 people.

I am always interested in comparing countries, so I pulled out and analyzed their statistics on where Twitter users are located to calculate the proportion of the population that are use Twitter. I used the Sysomos data on Twitter usage, the ever-handy Nationmaster for population figures, and a combination of the recent http://rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2009/04/at_current_grow_1.html combined with Sysomos data on recent growth, as well as our own estimates.

The US is in the lead, not surprisingly, though by a far lower margin than even just six month ago. The global growth of Twitter has accelerated recently, making usage in a number of other countries not far behind that of the US. The English speaking countries - Canada, Australia, UK and New Zealand - follow close behind, with Norway the stand-out in non-English speaking countries, together with the Netherlands and Sweden. The figures suggest Twitter is a truly niche interest in other countries, including France and Germany.

This evening I spoke at the Upsides of Downturns event at Creative Sydney. The Creative Sydney festival is intended to celebrate the creative wealth and diversity of the city, which is far deeper than most people appreciate and absolutely world-class. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to get to any of the other events, but I heard some great things about what has been happening through the festival.

I’ll post separately on what I spoke about – below are the unedited notes I took during the presentations and discussion. There were some great ideas put forward, with the most prominent theme of the evening how more and cheaper space in and around city centers can support creative connection and communities. There are clear lessons for urban planning and driving creative cities.

Andrew Ramadge, News.com.au
Challenge of the death of newspapers. The upside is that young journalists are experimenting and trying new things.

Since Victoria and Phoebe are still in hospital, last night I snuck out to Innovation Bay’s angel dinner. Innovation Bay has been running for five and half years, bringing together an invitation-only group to a variety of compact events. The founders Ian Gardiner, Rand Leeb-du-Toit and Phaedon Stough recently got together to reassess what they should do with the community and decided to run an ‘angel dinner’, inviting all of their speakers over the years plus some other successful entrepreneurs and investors to see some new start-ups. I in fact spoke at Innovation Bay’s second event in early 2004, giving an overview of the social networking space at the time, including key players and business models.

It was an excellent evening, and all three of the companies that presented were very impressive with very good stories to tell. Here are some brief notes from the evening:

Hello to the world from Phoebe Dawson! One more perfect instance of the daily miracle of life...

She was born 7 June 2009 at 12:44pm, and weighed 3.85kg (10% more than Leda at birth), looks gorgeous, and is bright and healthy. Both Phoebe and Victoria are doing well.

Leda is very excited about baby sister! Daddy and Leda are back at home and baby sister and Mummy will come home soon.

Mythologists will note the connection between Leda and Phoebe.

We intend to all get away on a little holiday soon to have a bit of a relax if we can, then the rest of a busy year beckons…

The US Interactive Advertising Bureau has just released 2009 Q1 figures, showing US$5.5 billion for a 5% fall from first quarter of last year.

This has to be put in the context of overall advertising revenue. The Newspaper Association of America recently announced that first quarter newspaper ad revenues were down over 28% over last year, while Barclays Capital early estimated that total US advertising revenues would fall 13% this year.

Techcrunch has updated its analysis of the valuation of the major social networks globally, based on new usage and advertising spending figures.

As last year when I did the same analysis, the most interesting part of this for me is the relative advertising spending per internet user across countries, and the very strong differences in what are sometimes quite similar economies.

The relative ranking has changed little from last year, though the absolute figures have fallen significantly. Internet advertising spending has essentially been flat over the last year or so, while there has been a solid increase in the number of users.

There is some great content on the Enterprise 2.0 Conference blog, including video interviews with J.B. Holston, CEO of Newsgator and Stowe Boyd. These give a flavor of some of the great content we can expect at Enterprise 2.0 Conference in Boston on June 22-25.

I’m due to have a call with J.B. Holston soon in which I will be very interested to hear his views on what I call the ‘RSS Enterprise’. He has some great insights in this video, including on the current pace of uptake of Enterprise 2.0 technologies, and the legal issues relating to privacy in different countries. A summary of some of the points he makes in the interview is available here.

Over the last month - in between all the other things I do - I have delivered five keynotes in San Francisco, Perth, Sydney, and Abu Dhabi, which has meant an average of over 2 hours each day on airplanes. This morning this sequence of keynotes ended, and I now have a bit of a break from speaking commitments.

One of the things that will be taking a lot of my time and attention is the arrival of my second child in the next week or two. Moving from a family of three to one of four is a big thing - I expect! Soon after we'll head off for a holiday in Fiji to get over all the excitement and have a rest.

Other than that in coming months there will be lots of business building, including working on the Future of Influence Summit and related content, creating some new web properties, and putting energy into developing a couple of the companies in our group. Hopefully I will be able to keep up a reasonable pace of blogging along the way, at very least by spinning off part of the content from our reports and research...

Tomorrow morning I give the opening keynote at Cerner Corporation’s Leadership Forum, which brings together a select group of senior executives from hospitals, healthcare and government.

Below are my slides for the presentation. Note that these are designed to accompany my speech and are not intended to be useful as a stand-alone presentation. However a few summary thoughts on the topic are presented below.

A few quick reflections on the global health economy and where it’s heading:

1. The health industry has been largely immune to the price drivers of other industries
Health spending as a proportion of GDP is on a long-term uptrend in all developed economies. Many of the drivers of lower prices in other industries, such as supply chain efficiencies, globalization, transparency, and new entrants have had relatively little impact, largely due to the systemic nature of vested interest in the status quo. However the pace of change in the structure of health economy is accelerating.