Futurist conversations: Thoughts on the future of television

Continuing our series of conversations between fellow futurist Gerd Leonhard and myself, here is our session on the future of television.

Here are a few of the ideas we share in the session:

* Video will be everywhere: video walls, ceilings, floors, tables and more, giving space for the vast amount of video we are creating.
* Participatory TV is an expression of the broad shift from hub and spoke media to co-created media.
* Examples include CBS’s What’s Trending, Al-Jazeera’s The Stream, and others however it is fairly early.
* We may have to get rid of the world ‘television’, which implies channels, boxes, cables, and more.
* There are another 50 video streaming sites other than YouTube as well as TED.com, Fora.TV, BigThink and many more.
* Jeff Jarvis is talking about book that you watch TV that you read.
* Every TV in the world will be connected to the internet.
* IPTV has been inevitable from the start – broadcast towers are there but will be complemented by IP delivery, resulting in essentially an infinite channel world.
* The future of television looks great because everything is a screen, which is a huge opportunity.
* Education is delivered by online video, games and even poker are available on digital TV.
* It seems most TV channels are as defensive against these shifts as many newspapers have been, doing themselves a disservice.
* Who better to take the opportunity of pervasive video than the existing TV participants?
* Globally $650 billion is spent on advertising, among a total of $1 trillion on marketing and promotion. Advertisers are not going to keep on putting money into a dumb box that doesn’t know what its audience is or what it is doing.
* Targeted advertising is becoming possible, allowing brands to reach who are interesting, but it does require a different infrastructure and different attitude.
* Ten years from now we’ll be happy to reach 1% of a national audience, a fraction of what mass media reach used to be.

http://www.instantdane.tv Dane Findley

How can the small content creator leverage this opportunity, while the giant media corps are still entrenched in old habits?

http://www.rossdawsonblog.com Ross Dawson

In many ways, not least by creating great content at a fraction of the cost of big media, in new formats, with new distribution. That doesn’t mean that making solid revenue is easy, but there will be more markets for good video as channel proliferation continues…

http://www.instantdane.tv Dane Findley

I’m bettin’ on it! I try to stay focused on consistently offering helpful and/or entertaining videos as I stay poised for opportunities as they present themselves. At this point, it’s more about tenacity, combined with a calling toward purpose.

I’m excited to see how media continues to evolve in this digital era. Since it feels like Google runs the show, I put much of my energy there, now. But I’m always searching and wondering: what new distribution channel am I missing that can take me to the tipping point?

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