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The distribution of music taste and consumption has shifted dramatically over the decade years, and will continue to evolve significantly in coming years.

Back before a dozen years ago, radio and MTV exposed people to a limited range of music from label playlists, and the cost of records and CDs made it hard to experiment with new music.

The first big change from that landscape was the widespread availability of online music downloads, which suddenly massively broadened the music libraries of the minority of people who were active downloaders, though didn’t give people an easy way of discovering music they liked that they hadn’t heard before.

The rise of customized online radio, first Last.FM, then Pandora and a host of others, then more recently the rise of Spotify, has exposed people to a wide range of new music that they like. Only recently has there been decent social media-based music sharing, notably Turntable.fm and a number of services’ integration with Facebook, helping share music tastes more broadly.

Alongside these shifts, over the last decades technology has liberated musicians by enabling studio-quality recording and production at increasingly low cost, multiplying many-fold the amount of music available (both excellent and crap).

As illustrated above, this results in a distribution of music taste that is far broader than before, and overall results in significantly greater music consumption than before.

However it also means that there are fewer artists and songs that are massively successful – the curve is flatter as well as broader. For example, music festivals are finding it harder to find artists that are big drawcards to a broad audience. As the music landscape fragments, fewer stand out.

Over time we can expect the curve to flatten and broaden further. Yes there will continue to be a handful of extremely high-prominent acts, such as Lady Gaga today, but far fewer than before. Since the dynamics of the music industry have always been based on hits, this makes making money from music even harder than before.

On the other hand, consumers win. It is possible that the greater challenges of making money from music will shrink the availability of new music, but I suspect only marginally. For those who have a decent audience, new models are emerging, such as Björk’s new ‘app album’.

I think a world of far greater music diversity, and far better access to it, is a wonderful thing.

For the most current insights and trends in the living networks, follow @rossdawson on Twitter!

  • Anonymous

    Digital Rules! are simple, “Keep up with the Changes”. The new industry moves at the speed of “Tweets” if you feel what I am saying to you, whether you are an Independent Artist, or lucky enough to be with a major label, Social Media is the new industry.
    Yes there is a learning curve, but there comes one with all things new, so due diligence is necessary.
    From Facebook, to Youtube, LastFm to Spotify, and all the many others in between, you must become familiar with them or hire someone who is.
    Engagement with every increasingly smart consumer is vital.
    Who am I? The “Silver Conductor” at:
    http://www.thesilverconductor.com
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOO6ZTBf1Oc
    http://bit.ly/p8lOLU
    Remember:”Always know who loves you”
    The “Silver Conductor” on facebook

  • Anonymous

    > As illustrated above, this results in a distribution of music taste
    that is far broader than before, and overall results in significantly
    greater music consumption than before.

    That’s just a random artistic visualization. Is there any actual data? Because network effects cut both ways and the data doesn’t always show it: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Long_Tail#Criticisms

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Ross Dawson is globally recognized as a leading futurist, entrepreneur, keynote speaker, strategy advisor, and bestselling author. He is Founding Chairman of AHT Group, which consists of 3 companies: consulting, publishing, and ventures firm Advanced Human Technologies, future and strategy firm Future Exploration Network, and events company The Insight Exchange.

Ross is author most recently of Getting Results From Crowds, the prescient Living Networks, which anticipated the social network revolution, the Amazon.com bestseller Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, and Implementing Enterprise 2.0. (click on the links for free chapter downloads). He is based in Sydney and San Francisco with his wife jewellery designer Victoria Buckley and two beautiful young daughters.

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