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The Newspaper Extinction Timeline below was launched one year ago today. It received plenty of attention, getting published in newspapers and other mainstream media in over 30 countries, and being seen well over a million times.

Newspaper_Timeline_front.gif

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Today a commenter on the original post asked me if anything had happened over the last year to make me change my forecasts. The answer, in short, is no.

If you look at the broader factors that we used in assessing the underlying trends, as below, things have played out much as expected.

Newspaper_Timeline_back.gif

Click on image to download full framework

The prices and functionality of tablets, the deterioration of news-on-paper readership, and prices of print production have been largely in line with expectations. Arguably there has been a better-than-expected uptake of digital news monetization mechanisms by the readers of a handful of major newspapers, however that will not necessarily continue to support the production of news-on-paper, and it is likely there will be relatively few newspapers globally that can support paywalls.

We’ll continue to track how well our expectations are panning out as time counts down on the forecasts.

What do you think? Given developments over the last year, are these predictions becoming more or less to be borne out?

For the most current insights and trends in the living networks, follow @rossdawson on Twitter!

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About the Blog author

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Ross Dawson is globally recognized as a leading futurist, entrepreneur, keynote speaker, strategy advisor, and bestselling author. He is Founding Chairman of AHT Group, which consists of 3 companies: consulting, publishing, and ventures firm Advanced Human Technologies, future and strategy firm Future Exploration Network, and events company The Insight Exchange.

Ross is author most recently of Getting Results From Crowds, the prescient Living Networks, which anticipated the social network revolution, the Amazon.com bestseller Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, and Implementing Enterprise 2.0. (click on the links for free chapter downloads). He is based in Sydney and San Francisco with his wife jewellery designer Victoria Buckley and two beautiful young daughters.

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