Humans + AI forecasting far outperforms either alone: 6 lessons learned

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Since well before the advent of Generative AI,  machine learning models exceeded human forecasting performance across a whole range of specific domains. Within a bounded domain with sufficient data, machine learning is often extremely good at predicting outcomes.

However, machine learning can only work within defined domains where there is sufficient data. In most real world decision-making situations their forecasts need to be taken with a high degree of caution. 

One of the critical differences between most traditional analytic AI approaches and Large Language Models (LLMs) is that the former almost always applies to bounded domains, while the nature of LLMs is that their scope is unbounded. As such, it has the potential to help make better forecasts in conjunction with humans across various domains including business, economics, politics, science, and more.

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Applying Chain-of-Thought to AI-enhanced human thinking

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Among the most important recent innovations for improving the value and reliability of Large Language Models are Chain-of-Thought and its derivatives including Tree-of-Thought and Graph-of-Thought

These structures are also extremely valuable in designing effective Humans + AI workflows for better thinking.

In this article I’ll provide a high-level view of Chain-of-Thought and then look at applications to AI-augmented human intelligence.

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The long quest for news discovery apps that don’t suck

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Artifact, the news discovery app launched a year ago by the founders of Instagram, has just announced it is shutting down, saying “the market opportunity isn’t big enough to warrant continued investment in this way.”

As pointed out in TechCrunch, Artifact “hadn’t quite defined what it wanted to be”, iterating from its initial personalized news discovery platform to include conversations about news articles and the essence of a social network. 

Given my lifelong focus on information discovery I was excited by the launch of Artifact and was an early user. I found it somewhat useful in surfacing interesting articles, but not significantly better than other similar apps. 

News discovery still sucks

Having closely followed the information discovery space for over two decades, I continue to be amazed at how poor our tools are.

In my recent book Thriving on Overload I wrote: 

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My 2024 Ventures Map

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Visual frameworks are invaluable to clarify the relationships between ideas. Among the many visual frameworks I have created are a number of visual representations of my business models, both to communicate effectively and provide greater clarify for myself.

I am now entering a new phase of my work and ventures built over the last 18 months.

Here is the visual framework of my current ventures, followed by an explanation of each of the elements.
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Scenario planning in practice in an accelerating world

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I have been helping clients implement scenario planning for a quarter century, since 1998, in a very wide variety of contexts.

Therea are situations where scenario planning is more and less applicable. Especially pertinent today, as I have noted:

The greater the uncertainty, the greater the value of scenario planning.

There are many factors that impact the degree of uncertainty in decision-making, including timeframes, industries, information availability, technological context, and many more.
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The most dangerous idea ever is that humans will be vastly transcended by AI

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The advent of next-generation AI has brought into sharp focus one of the biggest divides of all: our perception of humanity’s place in the Universe.

I endlessly read people arguing that humans will be to AI as animals or insects are to humans. They envision a future where AI’s relentless advancement transcends every faculty we possess.

The countervailing stance is that human potential is unlimited. We have deliberately and consistently increased our capabilities and knowledge, and now we will use the tools we have created to continue to advance.

The rise of AI has intensified this debate, leading us to question: Are we, as humans, inherently limited or unlimited?

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If AI ethical advice is as good as human advice, what is its role?

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A very interesting paper The AI Ethicist: Fact or Fiction? reports that there is “no significant difference in the perceived value of the advice between human generated ethical advice and AI-generated ethical advice”.

In fact the random (as opposed to professional ethicist or MBA student) subjects preferred the AI advice, the paper suggests because AI is generally very agreeable.

The question is what is the role of AI in human ethical decisions?
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University education still matters, especially for generational economic mobility

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Formal education is critical for generational mobility, allowing young people to transcend engrained perceptions to not just learn, but demonstrate their capabilities by recognised paths.

Jose Luis Alvarado, dean of the Fordham Graduate School of Education, has written an excellent counter-narrative to those saying that tertiary education doesn’t matter any more, om the deep inequity of the anti-college movement. He shares how he was told at school he shouldn’t aspire to going to college. Others didn’t see his potential, quite possibly because of his family background.
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How to shape strategy and lead for 2050: SxSW Sydney session

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Australia’s national science agency CSIRO and leading deep-tech venture capital firm Main Sequence Ventures sponsored a 2050 content track at SxSW Sydney. It is fantastic to see truly long-term thinking in action in venture capital and tech innovation in Australia (or anywhere).

As part of the track Main Sequence Ventures partner Phil Morle and I had a conversation on The Next Blur: How To Be Ready for a World of Accelerating Change, essentially how to think strategically about 2050 for entrepreneurs and business leaders.  

Here are some highlights from what we covered:

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David Droga at SxSW Sydney on creativity and AI

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David Droga is absolutely someone I wanted to hear from at SxSW Sydney (among many other claims to fame he is the most awarded creative ever at Cannes Lion and CEO of the $16 billion agency Accenture Song).

Creativity was long supposed to be last bastion of human dominion over machines,. Yet over the last 18 months that has been cast into doubt. So what is the future of creativity in a world in which AI is – in some ways at least – becoming creative? It’s best to get it in David’s words. Here are some of most interesting quotes I captured from the session.

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