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While news-on-paper is on the way out, it appears to be quite a different story for TV. The TV industry globally is challenged in a variety of ways, however revenues in the US remain resilient, as shown in this chart.

Luma_TV_spend
Source: LUMA’s The Future of (Digital) TV

Digital video has exploded over the last 8 years however that has, in the main, being a complement to TV, with TV viewing eroding surprisingly slowly compared to earlier forecasts.

While it seems a foregone conclusion that traditional TV and digital video will merge in a number of domains, including ownership, viewing, and potentially even distribution, how that happens is a more challenging question.

This very interesting presentation – below – from Terence Kawaja, CEO of media technology investment bank Luma, tells a nice structured story on how this convergence may happen.

Clearly the bank is talking up the convergence opportunities (which would often result in juicy investment banking fees), however the case they make is solid.

The presentation looks at the TV Business, Trends, Issues, and Theses. The trends it distills are pretty apparent, but well articulated:

1. Fragmentation

2. Device Proliferation

3. Second Screen

4. New Entrants

5. Original Content Production

In this industry both many of the incumbents as well as new entrants such as tech giants are well-capitalized. This means the structure of the convergence could be structured in a wide variety of ways, not necessarily led by the established firms.

No-one doubts that moving images will be a primary feature of our future, both in the formats we are used to today and far beyond.

The jury is still out on who will carve out the bulk of the value. One of the most encouraging things is that across almost all scenarios, there will be a very rich ecosystem for smaller producers and players to create value. There will be more creators, and an exceedingly large pie to share.

For the most current insights and trends in the living networks, follow @rossdawson on Twitter!

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About the Blog author

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Ross Dawson is globally recognized as a leading futurist, entrepreneur, keynote speaker, strategy advisor, and bestselling author. He is Founding Chairman of AHT Group, which consists of 3 companies: consulting, publishing, and ventures firm Advanced Human Technologies, future and strategy firm Future Exploration Network, and events company The Insight Exchange.

Ross is author most recently of Getting Results From Crowds, the prescient Living Networks, which anticipated the social network revolution, the Amazon.com bestseller Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, and Implementing Enterprise 2.0. (click on the links for free chapter downloads). He is based in Sydney and San Francisco with his wife jewellery designer Victoria Buckley and two beautiful young daughters.

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