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This morning I did the opening keynote at IBM's Collective Intelligence BusinessSphere conference in Melbourne. It was designed as a brief and punchy opener to provide a big-picture context to what collective intelligence means for organizations and the key success factors.
Below are the slides. As always the slides are intended to provide visual support to my presentation, not to be useful by themselves. However there are a few visuals there that may be of interest even to those who didn't attend.
I recently finished reading the techno-thriller Daemon by Daniel Suarez. It is certainly not literature, but it is a fast-paced thriller that I found hard to put down. It posits a world in which a genius who creates online games builds a systems that makes the entire world into what is effectively a game, with an augmented reality interface, and in which individuals earn points for tasks that give them higher ranking.
I have long thought it is inevitable that much of our work and play will take place in what are effectively game environments.
In Jesse Schell's presentation at DICE (hattip: Kevin Kelly/The Technium) he gives an array of fantastic ideas about the intersection of reality and gaming. After covering how many games such as Wii, Guitar Hero and Webkinz are bring the real world into games, he goes off (from around 18:00) on a rapid-fire string of suggestions about how every aspect of the world can be made into a game.
It is intriguing that mobile social networking, which I have written about since its early days in 2002, has only taken off when Foursquare made it into a game. As people become more familiar with gaming environments and concepts, it seems natural to bring in gaming aspects to more parts of our life. Dangerous things that way lie, but it is inevitable that games and what we think of as reality will be merged to an extraordinary degree.
[UPDATE:] Tom Foremski says why he thinks this is a scary future.
IBM's annual Lotusphere conference is held each January, bringing together customers of IBM's enterprise collaboration suite. While many associate Lotus with its long-established product Notes, since the launch of Lotus Connections in 2007 Lotus is centered on Web 2.0 tools such as social networks, mash-ups and micro-blogging. After Lotussphere local events are run in countries around the world, usually dubbed Lotusphere Comes To You.
This year IBM Australia is calling its enterprise collaboration conference Collective Intelligence, running this in 9 cities around the country. In Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra they are dividing the program into technology and business streams. I will be doing the opening keynote for the BusinessSphere stream as below in Sydney and Melbourne, though I will be in Asia at the time of the Canberra event next week.
The event is free to attend for "IBM customers and prospects" - you can register at the website. Maybe see you there!
The evolution and future of Social Networking and Web 2.0 technologies
Web and social technologies, having already had a massive social impact, are now being applied extensively in business and government. Many of the most successful organisations globally are implementing social software and web tools to increase productivity, tap expertise, improve staff engagement and streamline processes.
Last week I was interviewed on Sky Business about recent data showing that Australia leads globally in use of social media, and the implications of such high levels of social media usage for business.
Here is the full interview, with major points noted below.
- It is surprising to see Australia at the top of the global charts in social media usage, given that just a few years ago it was significantly behind in uptake – this has been a dramatic acceleration in usage.
- It is a fascinating question why social media usage surged in Australia (see here for more detailed thoughts on the topic). Contributing factors include the sudden improvement in mobile data costs when the iPhone 3G was launched in July 2008, and the shift to more a conversational style of social media that suited the culture and dispersion of Australians.
Serendipity is one of the most beautiful words in the English language. It originates from the story of "the Three Princes of Serendip", which tells the tale of three princes who had the faculty of making happy and unexpected discoveries (see more on the story here).
For the last decade I have been talking about the idea of "enhanced serendipity". For example I wrote about how I used social networking software to create enhanced serendipity at a Living Networks event that I ran in New York in 2003, used the term to describe what was done by mobile social networking platform Dodgeball (the first attempt in the space by the founders of today's success story in the space Foursquare), and a longer post about Creating Enhanced Serendipity in 2006.
In today's New York Times, Nick Bilton writes a post titled ‘Controlled Serendipity’ Liberates the Web. He writes:
Here is a video of a very interesting interview of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg by Mike Arrington of Techcrunch.
There are a number of very interesting comments by Zuckerberg in the interview, including on how Facebook Connect is so fundamental to the company. He said that "obviously much more is going to be developed outside of Facebook than inside," meaning that the development of Facebook into a platform is critical.
More controversial was Zuckerberg's comments on privacy. At around 3:15 in the video he says:
"People have really gotten comfortable not only sharing more information and different kinds, but more openly and with more people. That social norm is just something that has evolved over time. We view it as our role in the system to constantly be innovating and be updating what our system is to reflect what the current social norms are."
This prompted Marshall Kirkpatrick of ReadWriteWeb to write a long diatribe, saying:
I don't buy Zuckerberg's argument that Facebook is now only reflecting the changes that society is undergoing. I think Facebook itself is a major agent of social change and by acting otherwise Zuckerberg is being arrogant and condescending.
This is a fascinating issue. I and many others - including Zuckerberg - have been surprised through this decade by quite how much people have been prepared to share, given the opportunity by the rapid rise of Web 2.0 tools. Undoubtedly there has been a rapid evolution of social attitudes to privacy, as many people have discovered that they are in fact comfortable sharing some personal information.
Other 2009 summary posts
Top blog posts of 2009: 6 on Twitter and the media
Top blog posts of 2009: Enterprise 2.0 and organizational effectiveness
Top keynote speech presentations/ videos of 2009
Third in my series of my blog posts that have attracted the most interest this year, on the general topic of the future. (I haven't included any of my presentations - I'll select some of these to put in another post.)
1. Wealth Adaptation Syndrome (WAS): a defining malaise of our times and the opportunities that stem from it
A syndrome to help understand society in 2009
2. Why traditional conferences are dying and how unconferences and audience participation are the future of events
Why events will always be important but they are starting to look very different from before
I very rarely find the time to write magazine articles, but I was delighted to write the opening feature article for MediaTitles 2010, an annual publication which covers the media and magazine industry.
To see the article in the full splendor of the print version, go to the MediaTitles website, which has the full publication viewable using Realview Technologies (with the article reformatted to take out the lists of four, which I think is a pity). My article is on pages 7-10.
The (original) text of the article is below.
CREATING THE FUTURE OF MEDIA
These are the best of times, these are the worst of times. The global economic crisis, coming on top of a dramatic transformation wrought by the rise of the Internet, is creating the swiftest change in media industry structure ever experienced. Newspapers and magazines are being shut down at an extraordinary pace all over the world, journalists are losing their jobs, and broadcast media are under threat as sliding advertising revenue hit an unmoving cost base. Yet as the world shifts towards what will be truly an all-encompassing media economy, there are extraordinary opportunities ahead for media organisations.
This is a critical juncture to examine the future of media. Magazines have and will continue to be central to how we learn, socialise, entertain ourselves, and make buying decisions. Yet the magazine industry will undoubtedly look very different scant years ahead. It is our role and responsibility to create the future of media, rather than to let it happen to us. To do that, we need to examine the most central driving forces, strategic issues and capabilities in the evolving media landscape.
Four Driving Forces
We have had a fantastic global uptake of the translations of our Social Media Strategy Framework into 12 languages.
As such, we intend to translate a lot more of the content created by Advanced Human Technologies and Future Exploration Network, starting with our Enterprise 2.0 Implementation Framework, which plays a central role in my book Implementing Enterprise 2.0.
Here is the framework in Spanish.

Click on the image to download the pdf
Please share this with any Spanish speakers who would be interested.
Also be sure to let me know if you can suggest any improvements to the translation.
Australia Network’s Newshour program recently ran a segment looking at online social networks, in particular Facebook.
The program features a number of excerpts from an interview with me about the online social network industry.
Here is a brief summary of the key points made in the interview:
* How Facebook has been used to promote Sydney as a tourist destination, resulting in a 276% increase in working holiday visas applications for Americans
* The popularity of social networks was foreseeable (and foreseen), fulfilling a human desire to connect
* Obama’s election campaign redefined both political fundraising and how social networks are perceived
* In building profitable social networks, there are limits to the advertising model however a range of new models are being explored
In March I gave the opening keynote at the Direct Selling Association's conference, talking about the breadth of opportunities in the economy and the role online social networks and communication might play in the future of the industry. From what I learned by preparing for and giving the keynote, I wrote a brief piece Six Key Insights into the future of the Direct Selling Industry.
Last week ABC TV did a short segment looking at the success of the direct selling industry during the downturn, and where it is likely to go from here, shown below. An excerpt from an interview with me was included in the program. During the interview I discussed the perception challenges of the industry, the role of generational change, and the use of social technologies in direct selling.
While it wasn't included in the final TV segment, in the interview I discussed the emergence of 'social commerce' as the likely center of much economic activity, and the potential for elements of the direct selling industry as we know it to morph into creating real in that space. The opportunity is there, however we have yet to see whether the industry will take it.
On Tuesday I gave the opening keynote at the 38th annual global conference of international accounting network Kreston International.
Kreston are a very interesting organization. With revenues across the network of over $2 billion, they are the 13th largest accounting network in the world. The day of the conference they made the final step in becoming a network according to the IFAC (International Federation of Accountants) definition of a network. One of the critical issues in determining whether a group of firms is deemed a network is whether they have common quality controls. The appointment of a Global Quality and Professional Standards Director is a key step Kreston has taken.
I have long been fascinated by professional services networks. I wrote about them in my first book Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, and in detail in Chapter 9 of Living Networks.
I am actively continuing to explore the nature of networks in professional services. How well they network very simply determines their success.
As such I was delighted to be invited to do the opening keynote on the conference's theme of Network to Win. It took the format of a participatory workshop run over two 45 minute sessions, getting the attendees to reflect on and discuss how they can best enhance the cross-firm networks that drive results.
Below are my slides for my presentation, provided primarily for event attendees. Note that they are intended to accompany my speech, not to be meaningful in themselves.
After a number of requests from friends I signed up for Aardvark recently. If you haven't t come across it, it's a social network for search, where your questions are given to whoever in your extended network is most likely to be able to answer them, as illustrated below.
It's an interesting idea which has got a lot of buzz though not a lot of uptake yet. I suspect that this approach to social search is more likely to get traction within an existing social network rather than a dedicated one, though it's possible that it could take off, most likely initially in specific communities.
The nub of how Aardvark works is by using your nominated topics, which can be input either by yourself or others. I entered topics of 'enterprise 2.0' and 'social networks' and others have tagged me with 'business' and 'social media'.
As such I was rather surprised when I received this email from Aardvark:
(Aardvark) Help someone with a question about *adult entertainment business*Hi Ross,
Briana/20/F/.....,.. just asked a question I think you might be able to answer,
"What's the best way to learn how to be a stripper?"
To answer, just reply to this message, and I'll forward your email along to Briana.
As it happens I don't know the answer. So why did Aardvark think that I might know?
This morning Future Exploration Network issued this press release (excuse the hyperbole :-) ) I have already done several radio interviews on the forecasts in the release with quite a few more radio, newspaper and TV interviews lined up for the next days - the ideas seem to have struck a chord.
Futurist proved correct! …and today describes the extraordinary social technologies of 2016
Seven years ago, in his prescient book Living Networks, global leading futurist Ross Dawson accurately described the networked world of today, anticipating social networks, Twitter, corporate blogging, crowd-sourcing, personalised advertising, virtual personal assistants and much else that is now familiar to us.
Today, he offers insights into the extraordinary world of technology we will experience seven years into the future.
Ross’s forecasts for 2016 include:
• Many people will wear video glasses as they commute and walk around, experiencing new forms of television, news updates, and detailed information about the world around them and people they meet.
Spotify is one of the hottest online music properties of the moment, currently pushing into the US from its home territory of Europe, where it has over 2 million users in the UK and over 4 million users in the continent. Its founder Daniel Ek recently said that it is doubling revenues every month.
The basic model is providing music streaming from a library of more than 5 million songs, through European deals with all the major music labels plus many independents. Ad-supported free subscriptions are available, or full packages for EUR/GBP9.99 or equivalent per month which include ad-free access and the ability to download over 3,000 tracks to your music player to listen to wherever you are.
Early this decade the all-you-can-eat music subscription model was getting some attention. In my 2002 book Living Networks I wrote:
These twin powerful trends of greater access to content, and increased awareness of quality content, can result in greater revenue for these industries, but new business models are required. For example, US music consumers currently spend on average $60 a year on CDs—equivalent to perhaps four albums. If each of those consumers were given the option to pay $10 per month, and in return get all the music they wanted, it is safe to predict that most would take it up, feel they are getting great value, and the industry would double in size.






















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