Recently in Social trends Category

I have just completed delivering keynotes in six cities as part of a national roadshow for Optus Business. Optus’ annual client event, this year titled Beyond 08, was a morning event for its clients and prospects in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra. The sessions began with my keynote on Surviving and Thriving in a Connected World, followed by Optus executives presenting insight and client case studies on mobility and IP convergence. Each event included an exhibition featuring Alphawest, the ITC services firm Optus acquired three years ago, and a broad array of Optus Business delivery partner organizations.

Rather than try to run through my entire keynote presentation here, I thought it would be useful to include the key content from just one of the five sections, on the Driving Forces that are transforming a connected world. The rest of the keynote describes in detail what connected business looks like, winning strategies for organizations in a connected economy, and finally the action that needs to be taken to succeed.

The five driving forces of Connected Business are:

1. Connectivity

Increasing connectivity is an overwhelming force, shaping society and business. We have come a long way since the first mobile phones that weighed less than a brick in the early 1990s and the birth of the graphic web browser in 1993. As we shift to pervasive connectivity, giving us access to all the people and information resources of humanity wherever we go, entirely new possibilities are emerging on who we are and how we live our lives. As messages flow rapidly between us, the people on the planet are becoming connected as tightly as the neurons in our brains, giving rise to an extraordinary global brain in which we are all participating.

I have long believed that location-based mobile social networking is central to how technology will connect us. The advent of next generation phones including the iPhone combined with people’s familiarity and engagement with social networks means that the space is – finally – ready to take off. Here is a very quick review of the past, present, and future of the space.

The Past
The original location-based social networking application was proximity dating, which I wrote about in chapter 2 of my book Living Networks in 2002, in describing some of the many ways that networks bring people together:

In mobile-mad Japan, "proximity dating" has had a big success. As in Internet dating, you complete a profile of both yourself and your desired partner. Instead of suggesting people to exchange e-mails with, the service rings you on your cell phone to let you know that someone with a matching profile is within a few hundred yards of you, and allows you to arrange to meet them. Since high bandwidth mobile technology is now available in Japan, the system can also allow you to see each other on your mobile videophone before you meet.
[Download Chapter 2 of Living Networks]

People were very interested in the idea, and I got a lot of media coverage at the time for my thoughts on where this was going. There were a variety of technologies and platforms available for location-based social networking in the early days, however the major constraint was that very few phones had GPS, so the location of each phone had to be determined by cell tower triangulation, giving an accuracy often not better than one kilometre. One early example of location-based social networking at the time was from Swisscom, in which people could engage in anonymous chat, with indicators of both the numbers of degrees of separation from their counterpart in their phone books, and the approximate distance between them (from low to high).

SkillsOne is the TV channel of the Institute for Trade Skills Excellence, providing video programming both on cable TV and online to promote the development of trade skills. Last May it
won the Webby award for the best association website.

Shortly after SkillsOne was founded last year I was interviewed by the channel on the future of work. The full interview was run on the cable programming, while two 3 minute excerpts from the interview are provided online. Part 1 of the interview is below – I’ll post Part 2 a little later.

A quick summary of the key points I made in this segment:

Two questions when you are considering a trade or profession:
* Is it possible that computers or machines will be able to do this?
* Is it possible that someone working overseas will be able to do this for clients here?

In a global connected economy we must become more and more specialized, otherwise our work become commoditized. However specialists must collaborate closely with others in order to create value.

New York Times has a nice article on the collaborative information visualization tool Many Eyes. I wrote about Many Eyes in a post titled the magic of data visualization for everyone when the site was originally launched in January 2007. My post began:

Every day I am amazed afresh by the transformative power of the Web. Today I have discovered Many Eyes, a site hosted by IBM’s AlphaWorks. It combines open participation with a wonderful set of visualization tools. As such anyone can upload data sets, and then create sophisticated visual representations of those data sets, including scatterplots, tree maps, histograms, bubble diagrams, network maps and far more. Anyone can then either reuse the data sets, create new visualizations, add comments, or blog about the visualizations.

The basic functionality of the site hasn’t changed much since the launch, though it’s great to see not only that it’s being used extensively, but also getting significant attention and being used in new and unexpected ways.

Want to make sense of the latest political speech? Use the Wordle visualization tool on Many Eyes to pull out the themes, as in the representation above of Sarah Palin’s self-introduction as McCain’s running mate.

An article in Forbes titled What Privacy Policy? quotes data from a study by the Ponemon Institute, summarized below.

What it shows is distinctly fairly different attitudes and perception from privacy and security executives at large organizations, compared to those of marketing executives.

At the Future of Media Summit 2008 held in mid-July in Silicon Valley and Sydney we’ll be looking at the future of privacy and targeted advertising. Broad behavioral advertising requires either dominant players that have the breadth of relationships that they can serve relevant advertising to many viewers wherever they go on the Internet, or sharing of detailed information and profiles between market participants.

Today I participated in a Future Directions Forum at Sydney's Powerhouse Museum, which after 20 years in its current location is looking to the future.

To provide some context, the Powerhouse is specifically branded as a science and design museum, implicitly being about technology and it's impact on people's lives. It's worth looking at the excellent online resources section of the Powerhouse Museum website, which provides value to many people who never visit the museum. I've previously written abouut the very interesting Web 2.0-style initiatives of the Museum (and listed them in the Top Australian Web 2.0 applications), which among other features enables user tagging of the museum's collection. In a number of cases visitors to the website have corrected or provided more detailed information on the museum's collection, exemplifying how to tap collective wisdom.

The session raised many interesting questions and thoughts for me. I haven't been significantly involved with museums in the past, and was struck by many of the issues raised. The points below represent my perspectives as well as reflections on issues raised by people at forum. While the issues below were raised in the context of museums in areas like science, technology, and design, I think they apply across most kinds of museum.

Below are fourteen key issues in the future of museums.

What is a museum?
On the face of it, a museum records and makes accessible artefacts the past that have cultural value. The curatorial process is one of showing people things that enrich them. Museums need to have a clear idea of why they exist. In most cases (in addition to any financial imperatives) the objective is to benefit society, by educating and creating culturally richer and more well-rounded members of society.

Entertainment vs. education and onto experience.
Entertainment and education are quite different intents, but they can be integrated to achieve both aims. Certainly the demand from younger people has shifted strongly to only paying attention if content is truly entertaining. Beyond that, museums are fundamentally about providing experiences. People will seek engaging and powerful experiences, and if museums can provide them, their can fulfil their roles.

Slate magazine has published a very nice slideshow titled "Borrowed Time" about the past and future of libraries. On the final slide it refers to the Extinction Timeline created by What's Next and Future Exploration Network, where we had put 2019 for the extinction of libraries. Slate writes:

Ross Dawson, a business consultant who tracks different customs, devices, and institutions on what he calls an Extinction Timeline, predicts that libraries will disappear in 2019. He's probably right as far as the function of the library as a civic monument, or as a public repository for books, is concerned. On the other hand, in its mutating role as urban hangout, meeting place, and arbiter of information, the public library seems far from spent. This has less to do with the digital world—or the digital word—than with the age-old need for human contact.

Absolutely we are shifting into a world where experiences and physical interactions are becoming more important than ever. For example, shopping in shops will never disappear. We will create new spaces where we can meet and interact. We are yet to see whether the spaces where people spend their time are those based around books and collected information.

I occasionally compile interesting quotes. I was just adding one to my list today and I came across a gem I mined some years ago:

“Computer games don’t affect kids; I mean, if Pac-Man affected us as kids, we’d all be running around in darkened rooms, munching magic pills and listening to repetitive electronic music”. - Kristian Wilson, Nintendo Inc, 1989

So perhaps all we need to do is to look at the computer games of today to predict the future… :-)

Nowandnext.com and Future Exploration Network have once again collaborated to create a trend map for 2008 and beyond.

Our Trend Map for 2007+ had a major impact, with over 40,000 downloads, fantastic feedback (“The World’s Best Trend Map. Ever.” “I got shivers” “Amazing” “Fascinating” “Magnifique” etc. etc.), and inspired several other trend maps including Information Architects’ first map of web trends.

While last year’s map was based on the London tube map, the 2008 map is derived from Shanghai’s underground routes. Limited to just five lines, the map uncovers key trends across Society, Politics, Demographics, Economy, and Technology.

Click on the map below to get the full pdf.

Trends mentioned in the map include:

The latest Teens and Social Media report from Pew/Internet gives some great insights into how teens aged 12-17 are using the Internet.

There are a host of great insights in the report, including:
* 64% of online teens aged 12-17 have created content on the Internet, up from 57% at the end of 2004 (this is 59% of all teens, as 7% are not on the Internet)
* 35% of teen girls write a blog, compared to 20% of boys
* 19% of teen boys upload videos, compared to 10% of girls
* 70% of 15-17 year old girls have used an online social network, compared to 54% of boys
* 89% of teens who post photos online say they get comments
* 79% of teens restrict access to their photos in some way, compared to 61% of adults
* Email is the least popular communication form among teens, with just 14% saying they email their friends every day

The fact that close to two-thirds of teens create and share content on the Internet underlines the fact that we are moving into the Participative Age. In fact close to a quarter of over-65 years olds also create content on the Internet, however generational change will see a world in which we take it for granted that we all create and share in some form.

I usually am interviewed by the business press, but unusually I have appeared in the pages of the November issue of woman’s magazine Madison, in an article luridly titled: “This woman was sacked for having sex – Is your boss watching you right now?”

They quote me as follows:

Futurist and technology expert Ross Dawson says businesses banning social networking sites are not only stifling goodwill, they’re missing out on potential benefits. “When you are hired, your contacts are a drawcard. Many of our friends are people we meet through work. Some companies, like IBM, are even encouraging staff to get on Facebook to foster those networks.”

However Dawson warns we should be very cautious about what we post. “During the hiring process employers are routinely searching the net for anything you’ve done,” he says. “Personal blogs, what you got up to last night – all this is visible. And that’s where this grey area between personal and professional comes into play again. I don’t think a lot of young people, particulary teenagers who are naturally putting their lives online, would be presenting the best image for, say, an investment bank that wants to hire them in the future.” Many people are also unaware that a quick Google search may turn up something that they posted years before – their attitudes and lifestyle may have changed radically, yet they’ve left behind a permanent and highly accessible record for anyone who cares to see.

When people talk about the future, they usually point to all the new things that will come to pass. However the evolution of human society is as much about old things disappearing as new things appearing. This means it is particularly useful to consider everything in our lives that is likely to become extinct.

Below is the Extinction Timeline created jointly by What’s Next and Future Exploration Network – click on the image for the detailed timeline as a pdf (1.2MB).

For those who want a quick summary of a few of the things that we anticipate will become extinct in coming years:
2009: Mending things
2014: Getting lost
2016: Retirement
2019: Libraries
2020: Copyright
2022: Blogging, Speleeng, The Maldives
2030: Keys
2033: Coins
2036: Petrol engined vehicles
2037: Glaciers
2038: Peace & Quiet
2049: Physical newspapers, Google
Beyond 2050: Uglyness, Nation States, Death

I was recently interviewed for an excellent article in IDM magazine titled Democratic participation ignited by the power of many, which explores the potential of e-democracy.

Here are some selected quotes from the article:

“Mass media will always exist. People will always want a common perspective on the world. But we are definitely seeing a fragmentation of media,” says Dawson.

Rather than social leaving mass media for dead, Dawson believes we are seeing the emergence of two forms of media that primarily feed off each other. “Often journalists look to online blogs and sources and commentary and will even quote them in their articles. They don’t need to pick up the phone anymore,” says Dawson. “There’s no better way to pick up on trends then to explore the world of social media.”

“Of course there is always the issue of the credibility of the source. But often for credibility, people will simply turn to mainstream media,” says Dawson.

Although citizen journalism is opening the doors for anyone with Internet access to have their say, it may not progress ‘democracy’ but it does improve on the dissemination of information and debate. “In the past we had to rely on press releases and reports for our information, now we have access to everything,” says Dawson.

“As you get input on creating outcomes, emergent results occur, emergent outlines where you can’t predict the outcome,” says Dawson. “Things get better with the more people that use them. You see what’s popular, what’s relevant, different approaches and bringing together of different data-sets.

There are many layers to the potential of e-democracy. The domain of transparency and dialogue, on which I was quoted here, is the first. In the US presidential elections, already in full swing with 15 months to go, there is already substantially improved engagement by voters over previous elections. People have access to – and often choose – far more diverse sources than the mainstream media in forming their opinions. The power of bloggers was amply demonstrated by the line-up of all major Democratic candidates at the recent YearlyKos convention of political bloggers. There is real participation in political dialogue, whereas before the messages were almost all filtered through mainstream media. This is not to say that all is rosy in American democracy, or the way in which issues are discussed. However we are far closer to participatory democracy when discussion of the key political issues is participatory.

There seems to be a trend for trend maps! Back in late December Nowandnext.com and Future Exploration Network released a map of major trends for 2007 and beyond, as below. My original blog post described some of the background to the trend map.

Click here for the full Trend Blend 2007+ map

The pdf version of the trend map has been downloaded over 20,000 times from the various sites at which it is hosted, with many times that number having seen the map. Along the way it has generated many, many comments – here is a small selection:

“The World’s Best Trend Map. Ever.” The Big Switch
“The mother of all trend maps” Cookthink
“A neat map of trends, words and made-up words in the form of a tube map. This is about as close to art as marketing strategy gets. Really usefu"’ Dead Insect
“I find these graphical depictions of trends fascinating. While no map can tell you everything, they are valuable for triggering ideas at a glance.” Free Rein
“The amazing Trend Map for 2007 and beyond” Madeforone.com
“If you’re interested in a global overview of next years trends, don’t miss out on Ross Dawson’s amazing Trendmap 2007” Information Architects
“Check out this off the hook trend map! Wow, cool.” The Caucus House
“I love visual stuff like this, and just spent half an hour redrawing all the coloured lines and connections after printing the map out on my b/w printer…” Yule Heibel
“I got shivers. A pattern to give us a way to talk about the future. I particularly appreciated the "river of conciousness" that runs through Ross Dawson's map.” Nancy White
“Great piece of information architecture that shows how all the current trends out there come together and are shaped by the underlying motivators within society” Renaissance Chambara
"Visualisation of trends is amazing. It inspired me to think of the interaction of independent trends." PSFK
“Perdu dans la jungle des buzz word, de la mondialisation, du hype, du Web 2.0 et du reste ? Heureusement Serial mapper est là et a trouvé pour vous cette magnifique carte "Trend Blend 2007+" Serial Mapper
“Las tendencias más bonitas. De todo lo que se está publicando sobre tendencias para el 2007, me quedo con este mapa del metro del 2007 de Ross Dawson.” The Mixer
“Un documento realmente interesante que con un diseño original y bastante creativo” The Orange Market
“Interessante visualização do conjunto, uma maneira mais inteligente de se entender e contextualizar o que vem por aí neste ano que está só começando.” Coolhunterbr
“Este tipo de trabajos para presentar la información están de moda, pero recomiendo su visualización porque ofrece una mirada comprensiva a las próximas mega-tendencias.” Javier Velilla
“Interessant sind vor allem wie sich Schnittstellen zwischen unterschiedlichen Trends ergeben.” AYRWeblog
(By the way, this is not only my work as some have assumed – Richard Watson conceived this project.)

A few days later after we released our map, Information Architects, seemingly inspired by our map, created a map of web trends, based on the Tokyo subway map.

Click here for the A4 pdf

Their map seems to have got even more attention, helped by blog posts from some of the A-list bloggers featured. They even scored an article in Sankei Shimbun, a Japanese business newspaper with readership of 2.8 million, as well as other media uptake in Germany and Italy.

In the course of exploring the impact of these trends maps, I came across GreatMap, a fabulous site that has hundreds of links to fabulous visual representations. It’s well worth a browse through its links to see some of the work being done in visualization.

We are clearly rapidly shifting to an increasingly visual culture. As our world becomes increasingly complex, particularly when we consider the extraordinary possibilities of the future, words and linear structures fail us. We respond to visual representations that help us to make connections, even if they’re more fun than serious, as for our trend map. As a result, we’ll continue to produce more visual representations of interesting trends and the future – coming up soon!

I was interviewed for a podcast today by the enormously energetic Sanjana Hattotuwa, for his ICT for Peacebuilding blog. Sanjana’s overview of our broad-ranging discussion is here, and the podcast is here.

While we covered a lot of territory, including reputation systems, getting traditional media to adopt social media technologies, global innovation networks, and more, the heart of the conversation was about technology’s ability to support peace and a better world. This is a particularly pointed issue in Sri Lanka, where Sanjana is based, with violence now on the rise again. Certainly social media in particular gives us all access to a far broader range of views and opinions. Yet this doesn’t necessarily change people’s attitudes. The increasing polarization of the political debate in the US, and arguably globally, suggests that the rise of social media is not a universal panacea. Claims were made when both the telegraph and the telephone were introduced, that they would help bring about world peace. In fact, it can be easier to dehumanize people and opinions when discussion is intermediated by technology, thus creating more extreme expressions of disagreement or even hate. For decades it has been recognized that a key factor in people’s social networks is how diverse or similar their connections are (what Everett Rogers called heterophilous and homophilous networks). Certainly being exposed to more diverse people and views can help to temper views, yet this often has to be in a face-to-face context, where it is far harder to focus on abstract differences and to ignore people’s humanity. Unfortunately, I believe there are some aspects of humanity that mean it will not be soon before we stop killing each other. I also don’t doubt that much hate will continue to be expressed in the online world. Yet part of the evolution of humanity that we are increasingly exposed to other cultures and views. Most countries around the world have reached the stage where they are truly multi-cultural. From being exposed to people further afield primarily through mainstream media and entertainment, the shift is now to direct interpersonal communication, and accessing voices, writings, and videos created by an extraordinary assortment of individuals. Greater appreciation and tolerance is, in the long run, a fundamental outcome of this (without expecting world peace overnight…).