Recently in Technology trends Category

Here is the first of a series of infographics we are creating on the iPad and media. It shows the growth in sales of the iPad, including actual sales figures announced by Apple and forecasts by a variety of players for the end of this calendar year.

Click on the image to see at full size

It is interesting to look at the forecasts made before the launch of iPad for September 30 (Apple's end of financial year). No-one had any idea how successful the iPad has turned out to be. Given continued shortages in the stores, it appears clear that any forecasts for sales this year need will be driven by supply capacity rather than demand.

While some believe these high initial sales are just early adopters and Apple fanboys (and girls), I think the higher range of forecasts for this year and beyond (some as high as 35 million for next year) are likely.

[NOTE:] Our iPad Strategy Workshop on 27 August in Sydney is now at 75 registrations and will almost certainly sell out, so register soon if you want to come!

Very interesting results out from a survey by Cooper Murphy Webb of British iPad users:

Source: Cooper Murphy Webb

The study of 1034 iPad users in the UK showed that 31% prefer reading magazines and newspapers on their iPad, followed by 26% on their laptop/ computer and 24% on print.

On August 27 in Sydney The Insight Exchange is running an iPad Strategy Workshop as part of the Newspaper Publishers Association Future Forum conference. It is free for PANPA members and very inexpensive for others, including discounts for members of industry partners, so if you’re in Sydney I hope to see you there. See here for full details and registration.

It will be highly compressed event, packing much content, action and participation into two hours. One of the highlights will be the panel discussion with a group which has extensive experience and insights to share, including:

Keith Ahern, CEO, mogeneration
Grant Holloway, Managing Editor – Online, The Australian
Warren Lee, Group Director – Content Strategy & Integration, APN
Jan Razeb, CEO, Hungry Mobile (Czech Republic)
Abigail Thomas, Head of Strategic Development, ABC

Content partner for the event is Future Exploration Network, which is currently preparing a website and report on iPad and media. We are still developing the strategy frameworks, but I thought it would be worth sharing some of the high-level strategic issues we think are important, and will be raised at the iPad workshop (to the extent we can in the time available!).

iPad in the distribution mix. As some have pointed out, iPad can not be looked at in isolation. It is one of an increasing number of channels for content distribution and revenue generation. Strategies need to examine not only relative characteristics of the available channels, but how they complement each other and afford economies of scale or reach. In particular, the iPad is just the vanguard of a coming cornucopia of tablets and other media-friendly mobile devices.

Earlier today I spoke on a live webcast on the Future of Workplace Communication as part of Viocorp’s Future Forum series.

I took notes during the panel session and posted these live on my blog right after the event. I took notes while the other panellists were speaking: Nicky Wakefield, head of human capital at Deloitte, Philip Cronin, general manager of Intel Australia, and Oscar Trimboli, head of the information workers group at Microsoft.

I wasn’t able to take notes while I was speaking myself, so having had a look at the panel discussion which is now archived and can be viewed at the Viocorp site (requires registration), I’ve written out some of what I said during the discussion.

10:50 – 14:00
Workplace is not a good term to refer to the future – people will be working from anywhere so workplaces will have less impact than they have today. In the bigger context we also have to question whether organizations as we know them today will exist. Transaction costs are going down, meaning that moving forward, organizations will have to justify why they exist. There will be many business models bringing together loosely coupled talent and processes.

I recently tweeted to announce The Insight Exchange’s iPad Strategy Workshop, which will be held as part of the Newspaper Publisher’s Assocation Future Forum in Sydney on August 27.

I was a bit surprised by the response, firstly from @trib who said:

@rossdawson seriously, Ross, *iPad strategy*? Isn't that incredibly limiting and the sign of some bandwagon-induced narrow thinking?

with @renailemay supporting @trib and @abroadabroadeh separately writing:

@rossdawson cmon Ross - " iPad strategy" ? Please! It's a tool it should be part of a strategy - talk about shiny object syndrome

...followed by a bit of to-and-fro between us all on how iPad is only one element of media distribution.

It’s a fair point. As a media organization, anything you do on the iPad has to be considered within the complete context.

This morning in Adelaide I delivered the first of five keynotes I'm doing as part of a Telstra Business national roadshow on cloud computing. I am giving the opening keynote at the breakfast series, followed by Telstra Chief Technology Officer Hugh Bradlow or his key staff.

In the preparation phase I wrote up a brief description of my keynote on Tapping the Forces of Change for use in Telstra's promotion of the event to their clients and prospects. In doing so I came up with the concept of 'Breathe in the Cloud' as a useful metaphor. Companies need to breathe in the resources of cloud computing in order to give them the vitality to

Here is a video of the opening for my keynote, talking about why it is so important for companies to Breathe in the Cloud.

Rachel Slattery's second Tech23 event is coming up on 19 August in Sydney, providing a showcase for the best start-ups in Australia.

I was able to spend some of the day at last year's event, and blogged about the showcase and the SaaS/ In the Cloud session.

I had been thinking that Australia needed a good tech showcase, and after our Top 100 Web 2.0 Apps in Australia list and event I was considering running one. However with Tech23 doing a great job there was no need.

It is sometimes difficult to describe what my companies do. That is now a little bit easier, as we have created a flyer describing the key services of Advanced Human Technologies, focused on clients in the technology and media sector. The flyer does not mention our publishing and ventures activities, but covers the kind of consulting we do for vendors. Our Enterprise 2.0 flyer describes our work for corporate clients on implementing Enterprise 2.0.

Thought Leadership in Technology - Advanced Human Technologies

I hope it's useful for those that want to know more about what we do (or may even want to engage us!).

I will later share some snapshots of what Future Exploration Network and The Insight Exchange are up to, to give a better picture of the group and how it fits together.

Last week I interviewed my old friend Tom Stewart, formerly editor-in-chief of Harvard Business Review, and currently Chief Marketing and Knowledge Officer of Booz and Co, for a piece in CPA Australia's magazine InTheBlack. I'll share the article, on the role of financial executives in business strategy, on this blog later in the year.

Tom mentioned the fact that Frito-Lay, the most profitable division of Pepsico, introduced hand-held computers for real-time inventory management back in 1989. I had a look and found a fascinating article from 1990 in the New York Times titled Frito-Lay's Speedy Data Network, focusing on the information the system provided. It says:

Frito-Lay's electronic network has already led to a sweeping change in the company's competitive strategy. As the network developed, the company realized it could now shift from a national marketing strategy to one that emphasized local responses, so-called micro-marketing.

Through the month of August I will be doing the keynote address at a five-city Australian roadshow run by Telstra Business. I will open the breakfast events by providing a big picture view of how driving forces in technology, business and society are moving the world towards cloud computing, cloud working, cloud thinking, and cloud strategy.

I will be followed by Hugh Bradlow, Telstra's Chief Technology Officer, who will provide a more detailed vendor view of cloud computing.

There is no public website for the event; I was told to suggest you contact your Telstra account executive if you're interested in attending the event.

Below is a brief article I provided Telstra to help promote the event to their customers. I'll be fleshing out the thinking in this article in some further writing and quite possibly a cloud framework.

Tapping the forces of change

Take a deep breath. As you breathe in, think about the invisible substance that is all around us and sustains us, but we cannot see. Air is vital to us and fuels our energy. In the same way, businesses today are finding that access to a universe of computing resources on tap in the ether around them is helping to keep them healthy and drive their growth. A company's vitality increasingly depends on how readily it can breathe in this vital resource.

This delightful TV news clip from 1981 shows how people could access newspapers such as San Francisco Chronicle and the New York Times on their computer using a dial-up line.

It took 2 hours to download the text of a newspaper, with a $5 cost per hour. One user marvelled at how you could not only read the newspaper online, but also copy it into a document and print it out. It's particularly interesting to contrast the interface available in the day with, say, a contemporary iPad.

"We're not in it to make money," the newspaper people said of their experiments with online newspapers. Evidently.

We all know that processing power has for many years increased exponentially and continues to do so. This essentially means that any processing-intensive task you can imagine will eventually be possible.

Facial recognition happens to be a task that humans are hard-wired to be exceptionally good at. While computers struggled at this for a long time, it is now an entirely viable technology in controlled conditions, as when people are walking through turnstiles or gates.

The facial recognition used at the 2001 Super Bowl was successful enough to apparently nab 19 people with pending arrest warrants, while facial recognition is now commonly used in border security.

It becomes a lot harder when people's faces are not viewed from the front, however to a large degree that's where the increased processing power comes in handy.

Mark Cuban says that he has just invested in a company that uses video to identify how many people are in a given area, which can be useful for safety, security, and traffic control.

My one-year old daughter Phoebe has woken up from her afternoon nap so I'm introducing her to YouTube. I spent a lot of time with her older sister Leda on my knee watching YouTube videos a couple of years ago - it's time for Phoebe to explore the world of online video.

I have a number of favorites that I've watched many times, quite often as much for me as for the children. In case you haven't seen them before, here are these choice morsels - hope you enjoy them!

1. Big Buck Bunny
A collaborative effort to promote the (awesome) open source 3D platform Blender - outstanding!

Big news: Australian enterprise software company Atlassian, creators of popular wiki Confluence, project tracking platform Jira and other innovative software, has just raised $60 million from Accel Partners in what Wall Street Journal reports as a 'growth equity' round.

Atlassian has been entirely bootstrapped with no external funding to date, making it one of the larger companies in that situation, given its $59 million revenue in the last financial year. The reasons given for the funding round are to fund expansion in Europe and Asia, acquisitions, and to give liquidity to its employees, who all have stock options. Similarly, Microsoft's CFO at the time of their IPO said that they didn't need the money but mainly wanted to give their employees a way to participate easily in the company's success.

The opening words of Stewart Brand's Whole Earth Catalog in 1968 were: "We are as gods and might as well get good at it."

Indeed, the late 1960s were a time of vast optimism for many, based not just on the belief that ancient social strictures could be thrown off, but also that by use of new technologies we could liberate ourselves. The 1970s and then 1980s disabused people of the notion that revolution had truly arrived, as so little of the potential seen in the full flowering of new ideas seemed to have come to pass.

Then in the 1990s there was a smaller renaissance of techno-optimism, I think best captured in Douglas Rushkoff's book Cyberia (now fully downloadable), which talked of designer reality and technoshamanism. By then Timothy Leary had reinvented himself as a digital apostle, in Chaos and Cyberculture (the full text is here though it doesn't do justice to what is a highly visual book) describing how computers and connectivity were now the tools of enlightenment.

Today, after a decade of financial greed and excesses analogous to the 1980s, techno-optimism and neo-psychedelia are coming back with a vengeance. A strong indicator is the forthcoming documentary Turning into Gods by Jason Silva - the trailer is below.

TURNING INTO GODS - 'Concept Teaser' from jason silva on Vimeo.