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Back in August I predicted that newspapers in their current form will be irrelevant in Australia in 2022. That received significant international attention including from The Australian, The Guardian, Editor & Publisher (which called me the ‘Wizard of Aussie’) and many others.

Part of the point I wanted to make was that this date is different for every country. As such I have created a Newspaper Extinction Timeline that maps out the wide diversity in how quickly we can expect newspapers to remain significant around the world. First out is USA in 2017, followed by UK and Iceland in 2019 and Canada and Norway in 2020. In many countries newspapers will survive the year 2040.

The Australian has again covered this in a story title Deadline for newspapers as digital publications rise. There may be some more coverage in coming days.

Newspaper_Timeline_front.gif

Click on image to download full framework

The second page of the framework explains both the global and national drivers leading to the wide disparity in how quickly newspapers will move on, and provides some notes to the framework.

Newspaper_Timeline_back.gif

Click on image to download full framework

[UPDATE:] Here are some of the many reactions to the Newspaper Extinction Timeline with a few comments.

[UPDATE 2:] Here are Further explanations and answers to 6 questions on the Newspaper Extinction Timeline after one million views.

Below are the factors:

FACTORS DRIVING THE PACE OF NEWSPAPER EXTINCTION

GLOBAL

Increased cost performance of mobile phones

Increased cost performance of tablets/ e-readers

Development of high performance digital paper

Changes in newsprint and print production costs

Uptake of digital news monetization mechanisms

Trends in advertising spend and allocation

Development of open platforms

NATIONAL

Technology uptake

Fixed bandwidth availability and costs

Mobile bandwidth availability and costs

Smartphone and e-reader penetration

Economic development

Economic growth rate

Wealth inequality

Urban/ regional wealth disparity

Industry structure

Financial position of leading newspapers

Balance of advertising and print sales revenue

Newspaper distribution structures

Demographics

Age structure, birth rates, and immigration

Degree of urbanization

Increase in literacy

Government

Degree of regulation

Government financial support for media

Censorship and obstruction

Consumer behaviors

Media channel preferences

Willingness to pay for news

Relative interest in local and global news

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Ross Dawson is globally recognized as a leading futurist, entrepreneur, keynote speaker, strategy advisor, and bestselling author. He is Founding Chairman of AHT Group, which consists of 3 companies: consulting, publishing, and ventures firm Advanced Human Technologies, future and strategy firm Future Exploration Network, and events company The Insight Exchange.

Ross is author most recently of Getting Results From Crowds, the prescient Living Networks, which anticipated the social network revolution, the Amazon.com bestseller Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, and Implementing Enterprise 2.0. (click on the links for free chapter downloads). He is based in Sydney and San Francisco with his wife jewellery designer Victoria Buckley and two beautiful young daughters.

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